Claude is ready to meet his public

Top News

Anthropic prepping an IPO: It’s so hard to say goodbye, but one of our fav TWiST 500 companies — Claude chatbot makers Anthropic — may be ready to leave the nest. FT reports that the company has engaged law firm (and friends of the pod) Wilson Sonsini to help them prep for a massive IPO, which could land as early as Q1 2026. (Discussions remain “preliminary and information,” based on most accounts.) Anthropic is also reportedly seeking a new round of private funding, at a valuation that the media suggests could be above $300 billion. Of course, this puts them in something of an public offering showdown against OpenAI, which recently went on “Code Red Alert,” in an effort to catch Google and other rivals. (They are SLAMMING Mountain Dews right now.)
Marvell acquiring Celestial AI: Celestial, a (former) TWiST 500 startup, designed a Photonic Fabric platform that interconnects high-powered chips at data centers, making them faster and more efficient. They’re being scooped up by Marvell, a semiconductor corporation out of Santa Clara, for at least $3.25 billion in cash and stock (though this could go as high as $5.5 billion if Celestial hits some key milestones). The hope is, of course, that Celestial’s tech helps Marvell move even more chips and related parts as America beefs up its AI infrastructure.
Simulated websites help AI agents train: Intriguing New York Times write-up today on a perhaps under-covered corner of the AI marketplace: startups “recreating” popular websites that train AI systems to more effectively navigate the internet. You may have noticed that a lot of agents still struggle to complete relatively simple online tasks, like booking a flight or completing a financial transaction. Startups like AGI and Plato believe that the answers can be found in replica websites, allowing bots to figure out these activities for themselves via “extreme trial and error.”

TWiST 500

It’s already a MASSIVE news day in the world of prediction markets.

Polymarket started out Wednesday with an X post launching their new US app for anyone on the waitlist. The first markets will apparently center around sports, followed by “everything” in short measure. Of course, PM’s return to the States has been something of an inevitability for a while now, at least since prominent and well-connected investor Donald Trump Jr. backed the iconic prediction market over the summer.

CEO Shayne Coplan has been making the media rounds ahead of PM’s glorious return, even stopping by “60 Minutes” over the weekend, where he assured Anderson Cooper that the service is “the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now, until someone else creates some sort of a super crystal ball.”

But of course, Coplan’s company is NOT the only major prediction market in the game right now. Rivals Kalshi are already operating within the US, and have high-profile partnerships with very visible platforms like Robinhood and Coinbase. Kalshi announced this week that they’ve raised another $1 billion (their third round this year) at an $11 billion valuation.

Kalshi also announced a noteworthy partnership with Warner Bros Discovery’s (for now) news network CNN. According to Kalshi’s CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour, CNN will use the prediction network to, well, predict the news. Or in his words, “help audiences interpret what may happen more accurately in the future.” According to Axios, the network’s chief data analysis, Harry Enten, will reference real-time data from Kalshi on the air. The relationship here is exclusive, so CNN won’t work with any other prediction markets, but it’s a purely “for exposure” type deal. The network isn’t paying Kalshi a fee to license their data.

Millions of Americans are already trading contracts on prediction markets, but with these platforms becoming increasingly visible every day on TV and streaming platforms, while being integrated into ever-more apps, it feels increasingly like we’re on the precipice of an explosion of activity. – Lon

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This Week in Startups

E2217: On a special Tuesday edition of TWiST, we welcome two awesome guests from noteworthy TWiST 500 startups. First, Monumental CEO Salar al Khafaji walks us through how his company makes construction robots “play nice” with one another on work sites. THEN we’ve got Seasats CEO Mike Flanigan showcasing the next generation of autonomous marine craft, and filling us in on why it’s so hard to defend against tiny, agile drones. Finally, Jason takes some of YOUR pressing Founder Q’s.

E2216: Now that Bitcoin is dipping ever-downward, what does that mean for Michael Saylor’s Strategy strategy? Jason and Alex run the numbers on TWiST, and remain pretty skeptical about the company’s central, increasingly convoluted, digital debt-based financial scheme. PLUS is Tether “too good to be true,” as an investment? Why the US may have waited too long to pass stablecoin regulations. And Jason’s response to the NYT “exposé” about his Bestie David Sacks.

E2215: Alex chats with Neubird CEO Gou Rao about the intricate complexity of IT Ops, and the vast amount of layers and components that have to be delivered very quickly to your phone in order to stream a simple video clip. Then Subject AI CEO Michael Vilardo stops by to tell us how the app uses gamification to keep kids learning and engaged. Finally, we’re flashing back to a remarkably prescient 2019 interview with then-Scale AI chief Alexandr Wang, who tells us why he thinks the AI Doomsday scenarios — AND the elaborate AGI promises — are both way overblown.

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LAUNCH 35 Public Demo Day

Our 35th LAUNCH Accelerator cohort is graduating in just a few weeks and we’d love for YOU to attend their Public Demo Day!

WHEN: December 8 at 12:30 pm PT
WHERE: Zoom
REGISTER: https://www.launch.co/live

Investor Networking Lunch in SF

Jason and LAUNCH are hosting an investor networking lunch, followed by pitches from our latest Accelerator batch. Join us for Dim Sum in San Francisco on Friday, December 5th. (Or forward this to your investor friends.)

Date/Time: Friday, December 5th, 2025 at 12-3PM PT
Format: Dim sum lunch, followed by founder pitches & investor networking
Location: TBA (Chinatown area)

Spots are limited, please RSVP here. The LAUNCH team will email you confirmation once your registration is accepted. You must be an accredited investor or work for a VC Fund to join.

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Need a flexible living and working environment in San Francisco? This thoughtfully designed loft-style residence at 787 Bryant St., the heart of the vibrant SOMA district and the city’s creative hub, is now available for rent or purchase. Check the listing for more details.

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