Retail Brew // Morning Brew // Update

March 17, 2025

It’s St. Patrick’s Day, and, as ever, restaurants are outdoing themselves when it comes to what they can turn green to celebrate. Some Panera Bread locations, for example, are dyeing the bread bowls green, while Krispy Kreme unveiled four limited-edition doughnuts (three of them green), and Dairy Queen is offering a special Mint Oreo Blizzard. If only all these fit the bill when Mom told us to eat our greens…

In today’s edition:

—Erin Cabrey, Andrew Adam Newman, Alex Vuocolo

STORES

Vote of confidence

A graphic of a food receipt in the shape of an upward arrow

Francis Scialabba

Consumer confidence took a sharp drop in February, and as uncertainty around consumer behavior—and what news regarding tariffs and other issues each day will bring—abounds, it’s tough to be confident in what that decline could indicate about future consumer spending.

As measured by the Conference Board, consumer confidence plummeted seven points in February to 98.3, the largest monthly decline since August 2021. It marked the third consecutive month of drops, as consumers became more pessimistic about the labor market, future business conditions, and income, citing inflated prices, trade and tariffs, and the Trump administration’s policies as concerns, Stephanie Guichard, senior economist of global indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement. Consumer sentiment, a similar metric measured by the University of Michigan, dropped 5% in February, and further plummeted 11% in March, the lowest since November 2022, with consumers citing the same concerns.

Historically, these consumer metrics, measured for over 50 years, have been recognized as a barometer for consumer spending, often dipping or rising in tandem. But this confidence drop is different from those in the past; it’s not corresponding with a worse economy as much as inflation and the broader political climate, Joe Schmitt, managing director and co-lead of the Retail Performance Improvement practice at BRG, told Retail Brew, and wallets of consumer groups driving the most spending are largely full, Tamara Charm, partner at Agile Consumer Insights at McKinsey, noted. So what could the confidence drop tell retailers about changing spending patterns?

Keep reading here.—EC

From The Crew

Let Morning Brew Daily make you smarter

You’re already part of the Morning Brew community, but did you know you can also listen to and/or watch the wittiest and smartest takes on business news?

Morning Brew Daily hosts Neal Freyman and Toby Howell have you covered on everything you need to know before your cup of coffee, from the latest headlines on the economy to explanations of viral TikTok trends.

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New episodes are released every weekday at 7am ET. Check ’em out on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts.

MARKETING

Off Target

Kevin Carter/Getty Images

As the drumbeat of backlash against Target for backtracking on DEI continues, including a 40-day boycott against it spearheaded by Black faith leaders that began March 3, foot traffic fell at Target for the sixth consecutive week, according to data from Placer.ai.

For the week the boycott started, foot traffic fell 6.8% YoY at Target, worse than the 4..7% it fell the week before.

Target, which championed racial justice and social justice in recent years before giving in to the Trump administration’s demand that companies dismantle their DEI programs, is seeing traffic drop more precipitously than other companies that capitulated.

Keep reading here.—AAN

RETAIL

Be green you and me

Evgeniya Moskova/Getty Images

It’s St. Patrick’s Day, and your local retailers are likely festooned with glossy green decorations. The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts consumers will spend $7 billion on a combination of beverages, clothing, and holiday-themed food. The industry organization said the holiday has grown in recent years, with 61% of consumers planning to celebrate and spend an average of $44 per person.

Here’s what else is going on in retail this week:

In data: The Census Bureau is releasing its monthly retail sales data for February on Monday. Sales were down 0.9% from the previous month in January, their biggest drop in two years, but were still up 4.2% from the year before. NRF blamed the dip on a mix of harsh winter weather and falling consumer confidence due to tariff concerns, unemployment, and policy uncertainty.

Keep reading here.—AV

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SWAPPING SKUS

Today’s top retail reads.

Second naught: Forever 21 has filed for bankruptcy…again. (Bloomberg)

Tirade deficit: Why it’s small businesses that may be hurt most by Trump’s tariffs. (Fast Company)

Missouri loves company: The path to Missouri becoming a hot spot for the retail recreational cannabis industry. (the Wall Street Journal)

HOT TOPIC

At the mall, it’s where band tees are the only tees. In Retail Brew, it’s where we invite readers to weigh in on a trending retail topic.

Amazon Haul, the e-commerce giant’s low-cost offering that it launched in November to take on Temu and Shein, is a long way from becoming as ubiquitous as its flagship site, with a recent survey finding that more than 3 out of 4 shoppers (76%) had not shopped at Amazon Haul.

You tell us: Have you made a purchase at Amazon Haul? Cast your vote here.

Circling back: Last week we noted that a recent Eater article revealed privacy concerns that some consumers have about restaurant apps, and we asked if you’d refrained from either downloading or using restaurant apps out of privacy concerns. It turns out that most of you (61.7%) have either not downloaded or not used restaurant apps out of privacy concerns, while 38.3% were not restrained by those privacy concerns.

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